Unit-ship talk:Spy/Archive 1

My scores:

My town level 13, my hideout level 4

Town 1
Spy in town level 11, their hideout level 14

Percentage chance

Inspect warehouse Risk:5%

Spy out garrison Risk: 29%

Observe fleet and troop movements Risk: 79%

Spy out treasure chamber Risk: 5%

Spy out level of research Risk: 5%

Online status Risk: 5%

Observe communication Risk: 59%

Recall spy Risk: 5%

Town 2
Spy in town level 12, their hideout level 2

Percentage chance

Inspect warehouse Risk:5%

Spy out garrison Risk: 17%

Observe fleet and troop movements Risk: 67%

Spy out treasure chamber Risk: 5%

Spy out level of research Risk: 5%

Online status Risk: 5%

Observe communication Risk: 47%

Recall spy Risk: 5%

Town 3
Spy in town level 10, their hideout level 2

Percentage chance

Inspect warehouse Risk:5%

Spy out garrison Risk: 29%

Observe fleet and troop movements Risk: 79%

Spy out treasure chamber Risk: 5%

Spy out level of research Risk: 5%

Online status Risk: 5%

Observe communication Risk: 59%

Recall spy Risk: 5%

Town 4
Spy in town level 12, their hideout level 0

Percentage chance

Inspect warehouse Risk:5%

Spy out garrison Risk: 17%

Observe fleet and troop movements Risk: 67%

Spy out treasure chamber Risk: 5%

Spy out level of research Risk: 5%

Online status Risk: 5%

Observe communication Risk: 47%

Recall spy Risk: 5%

My Thoughts
I believe you're accurate in determining the different percentage levels. For instance, I've noticed the % chance goes down by 6% per level of their town hall, and from your data, I see that it does down 2% per your hideout level. I haven't encountered a town where their spy is defending. My only thought is that their should be a level 6 since I oticed a distinct 20% difference chance on those two level 5 tasks. Bloodhound 22:02, 6 March 2008 (UTC) P.S. What level is invading a town registered at?

It's hard to tell, since it fluctuates for me. This may be due to them training a spy and loosing it, but I can't be sure. I'll add that to the data when I can poke around more people's towns without getting caught trying to get in... as for a risk level 6, I may agree once we find the threshold for Observing Fleet/Troop movements. It may just be bugged, or hasn't been implemented yet, in which case it'll be a 'special' case and made an exception. Eliria 23:48, 6 March 2008 (UTC)

I have a question too.....it seems if I send my spies somewhere and forget about them for a couple of minutes, they get caught. Is it that they'd get caught anyway or that the exact minute they arrive there I need to tell them what to do? Thanks.

Final Data
The algorithm: $$Risk = C + M - (t*6 + h*2)$$ Provided $$M - (t*6 + h*2) \ge 0$$

Where M is equal to the Mission Risk Base; t is equal to the Enemy Town Level; h is equal to the Hideout Level; C is equal to Current Risk.

The Mission Risk (total risk) is the sum of the Current Risk, and the difference of the Mission Risk Base and the sum of products of the town level and six, and the hideout level and two, provided the difference of the Mission Risk Base and the sum of the products remains equal to or greater than zero.

The Mission Risk Base with proofs:

Risk 6 Base:147% Risk 5 Base:127% Risk 4 Base:97% Risk 3 Base:67% Risk 2 Base:47% Risk 1 Base:37%

Notes:

Risk is never less than 5%, never greater than 95%. This is because Current Risk has a minimum of 5%, providing the lower threshold, rather than previously thought that the Mission Risk is added to Current Risk - in actuality I believe that the Mission Risk may be 0, but the Current Risk has a min of 5%. Max Mission Risk = M - 8% due to the fact a level 1 town and level 1 hideout provide 6% and 2% decrease, respectively.

Town 4 : Town 8 : Town 10 + Hideout6

11% : 5% :  5% 61% : 37% : 25% 95% : 87% : 75% 05% :  5% :  5% 31% :  7% :  5% 05% :  5% :  5% 91% : 67% : 55% 11% :  5% :  5%

This follows the exact same pattern as before. -6% per enemy city level, -2% per hideout level. Enemy spies seem to have no effect on the Mission Risk. However, the Risk of Infiltration does in fact increase with enemy spies. That I will calculate next.

The base % of Observe Movements and Observe Communication are as follows: Observe Movements: 147% Observe Communication: 127%

Confirmed from my data...

4*6% + 6*2% = 36% = Town 4 + Hideout 6 Risk 6: 95% Risk 5: 91% (+36% = 127%) Risk 4: 61% (+36% = 97%) Risk 3: 31% (+36% = 67%) Risk 2: 11% (+36% = 47%)

8*6% + 6*2% = 60% = Town 8 + Hideout 6 Risk 6: 87% (+60% = 147%) Risk 5: 67% (+60% = 127%) Risk 4: 37% (+60% = 97%) Risk 3: 7% (+60% =  67%)

10*6% + 6*2% = 72% = Town 10 + Hideout 6 Risk 6: 75% (+72% = 147%) Risk 5: 55% (+72% = 127%) Risk 4: 25% (+72% = 97%)

...as well as BloodHound's...

Town 10(*6%) + Hideout 4(*2%) = 68% 05% 29% : risk 4 (+68% = 97%) 79% : risk 6 (+68% = 147%) 05% 05% 05% 59% : risk 5 (+68% = 127%) 05%

Caught spies, what happens?
I recently started playing Ikariam, and I've currently only used one spy. I tried giving it a mission (it got into the city successfully), but it got caught (ie. "not responding"). Later on, I attacked the city successfully, but they didn't seem to find the missing spy or such. Is there any way of getting it back later? (Since it keeps its place in the Hideout list of spies.) By the way, how do I know which risk base is which? (In the article, for calculating the risk.) -82.182.180.137 22:13, 24 April 2008 (UTC)


 * If the spy stops responding, they have killed it. You may not have waited to let things cool down from your first mission.

You must rebuild the spy from your hideout (the option is now available),

Caught Spies, information revealed
Anybody has an idea of how calculate in which cases a caught spy reveals information and wich kind of information reveals?

Propose renaming this article to "Spy"
The Wiki standard for articles is singular nouns, so this page should be named Spy and replaced with an appropriate redirect. Chupchup 04:06, 2 June 2008 (UTC)


 * I agree 100%. But it seems to need an admin to do the necessary "move over redirect". This page will automatically become a redirect. Robin Patterson 06:42, 2 June 2008 (UTC)

Page re-evaluation
As I have just updated and revised Spying to include information formerly represented only on the Spies/Spy page, as well as the Spy page's content being messy, unorganized, improperly formatted and downright ugly, and going beyond it's purview and purpose - I would like to propose that it be re-evaluated and revised based on the content which pertains strictly to the Spy itself, rather than including a mess of information, which while useful and important, ought to be elsewhere or better presented.

I will recreate the page, as I did with spying, as a profile subpage of my own, which can be viewed before changing the current Spy page to adjust it to be more akin to the individual unit pages for Units, and Citizen.

Originally I had created Spies due to being inspired by the lack of information but attempt at a wiki page on the very first Spy page. I soon realized that the information and project I had created went beyond a single page and created Spying to fill the role of guide and reference, while leaving Spies with the more technical information as it seemed best if a user did not have to toil through a bunch of math and statistics to get the gist of spying. However, things have come full circle.

I shall take a day or two before posting my recreation of Spy as a profile subpage, as weeding through the Spy page will take consideration. If anyone has anything to include, suggestions, disagreements, concerns, rants, raves, flames, or praise, please send it to my Talk page.

Thanks! ~ Eliria 02:51, 10 October 2008 (UTC)

Role of spies in combat
Hi there,

Great resource, thank you contributors :-) Could someone extend this page with the role of spies in combat? Sometimes I get a line like this in the combat report: "1 spies could open the town gates at 0 places!"

Thanks!

--

See here: Spying  ~ by Eliria 15:28, 29 October 2008 (UTC)

0.3.0 Formula
Anyone care to double check the spying formula for 0.3.0? It seems to me like the 'defending spy' bonus of 15% has been reduced to 5%, while each hideout level still gives 2% bonus for you when you spy on other, or a 2% risk increase for every level of their hideout.

Hideout levels typo?
Wonderful job! Very helpful. But there seems to be a small confusion in the meanings ascribed to $$h$$ and $$e$$. After the general formula it is stated '$$e$$ is equal to your hideout level; $$h$$ is equal to the enemy's hideout level' but in the example it is stated 'Enemy's hideout: $$e=1$$; Your hideout: $$h=2$$'.

Re-verification of source and status
It may be possible that the 2.8 update has changed either some of the constants or variables used in the mechanics of the risk algorithm or even the algorithm and mechanics themselves.

I don't know where the "each spy in target town adds 15%" came from - someone just added it and it was taken for granted, nor why the base risks were changed from 37/47/etc to 35/45, but those were also taken for granted and accepted for whatever reason. I can only assume there was a reason which I do not know of, and these are correct, since they came after I stopped playing Ikariam and working on the wiki for a while.

However, it was initially thought that any spies in a target town were acting as repellent to infiltration, but did not increase Mission risk.

Unfortunately I do not know anyone on the Ny server well enough yet that I can use them as test-dummies, nor do I have a control group that would need to enter the server and start from scratch.

2.1 Added content
I personally updated the numbers based upon 2.6 version of the game where I ran many trial runs of the info from base spy percentage to mission risks. I was able to calculate that each spy the opponent has in defense adds 15% to the risk. Every test run I performed afterward was calculated and perfected with that formula so it was correct based on that alone.

Since 2.8 came out, I've heard of many differences, but I haven't gotten a chance to run through the data to see what the differences are yet. --Bloodhound 23:41, 9 October 2008 (UTC)

I see. Thank you for updating and continuing to work on the formula, and notifying me. If I get any new info, I'll post it here for convenience. Eliria 03:18, 10 October 2008 (UTC)

Declared updated data from Spy will be incorporated soon.
The Spy page was updated with information concerning what was changed in the 0.2.8 update, part of which I have verified, and since Bloodhound has also added part of it, the associated work seems fully legit. I wish the anonymous editor which changed the base risk levels had referenced some kind of data, or source, rather than just changing it around. At least the formula and the fact that infiltration has been reduced from 68~% to 5% is verified.

Now I just need a few minutes of sleep... ~ by Eliria 16:01, 23 October 2008 (UTC)

Sorry Eliria, that anon edit was mine also, forgot to log in before I made a change. --Bloodhound 20:27, 23 October 2008 (UTC)